The excerpts below are from two Rand studies, Would Legalizing Marijuana in California Help?
Beau Kilmer, Jonathan P. Caulkins, Brittany M. Bond, Peter H. Reuter 2010
And What We Do and Don’t Know About the Likely Effects of Decriminalization and Legalization by Robert J. MacCoun and Peter Reuter. 1999
Since it is often difficult to read the whole of a large study I have pulled out parts which I think may be useful to those of us fighting the legalisation of drugs – with particular reference to Prop. 19 in California
Taken together, the available evidence suggests that the nonprice impact on consumption might be on the order of a 35-percent increase in past-month use. Given the ambiguity and noisiness of the data, estimates in the range of 5 to 50 percent seem plausible.
Throughout California in 2008, there were 181 admissions to hospitals in which marijuana abuse or dependence was listed as the primary reason for the hospitalization. Even though the average charge per episode exceeded $22,000, the total cost of these episodes is just over $2 million, so relatively small vis-à-vis the other costs and savings.
Perhaps more important from a cost perspective are the additional 25,000 admissions for which marijuana is listed as a supplemental diagnosis (second, third, or fourth diagnosis). Of these cases, nearly 4,000 were for schizophrenia (with an average charge of $20,300 per episode) and another 2,300 were for psychoses (with an average cost of $12,700). As the scientific
literature is still unclear as to whether marijuana use causes these conditions or just complicates treating them, we do not consider the cost here of these nonprimary diagnoses. More research is needed before an accurate assessment can be conducted, but the implications of these research findings could be important in terms of the burden imposed. For more details
on this, see Pacula (2010a).
Dependence and Abuse
How would the number of marijuana users meeting clinical criteria for abuse or dependence change with a change in the policy? Over this decade, the number of users meeting these criteria in the previous year as a fraction of people reporting use of marijuana in the past year in nationally representative samples has been fairly stable (~16 percent). One way to project what
could happen to dependent users post-legalization is to assume that this relationship between the number dependent and past-year users remains the same.
We start by making an assumption about legalization’s effect on consumption. For this example, we consider a 58-percent increase in annual consumption and refer interested readers to Pacula (2010a) for more information about this starting value. With 525,000 users estimated to meet Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th ed. (DSM-IV)
criteria for marijuana abuse or dependence in California in 2009 (Pacula, 2010a), a 58-percent increase would suggest a rise of 305,000, bringing the total number of users meeting clinical criteria for abuse or dependence to 830,000. Of course, there is tremendous uncertainty surrounding this number because of uncertainty about the baseline assumptions that generated
the predicted change in annual prevalence. If we adopt alternative plausible assumptions, we generate a range of 144,000 to 380,000, implying that the total number of users meeting clinical criteria for abuse or dependence would be in the range of 669,000 to 905,000.
There are currently no estimates in the literature of the social cost of a user meeting clinical criteria for abuse or dependence; thus, it is not possible to quantify this increase’s budgetary impact on California taxpayers. But, to the extent that dependence and abuse impose costs in the form of reduced productivity, higher health-care costs, or lost time with the family, a rise
in dependence represents a real loss to the citizens of California.
Drugged Driving
While driving under the influence of marijuana or any other intoxicating substance can be risky, a question remains about whether marijuana use impairs individuals sufficiently to cause crashes and fatalities. While there is significant experimental literature suggesting a diminished effect on response rates and performance under very strictly controlled conditions, evidence
from epidemiological studies has been less conclusive (Ramaekers et al., 2004; Blows et al., 2005). The notable exception in the literature are cases in which alcohol is used in conjunction with marijuana, in which case the evidence is clear that the combined effect of these two drugs impairs driving significantly more than alcohol alone (Bramness, Khiabani, and two drugs impairs driving significantly more than alcohol alone (Bramness, Khiabani, andMørland, 2010; Jones et al., 2003; Dussault et al., 2002).
Given the current uncertainty of the science in determining the role of marijuana use alone in accidents, it is impossible to determine how much an increase in marijuana use would translate into more accidents or, worse
yet, fatal crashes. However, a simple calculation suggests that, if someone believes that marijuana is causally responsible for many crashes that involve marijuana using drivers, legalization’s effect on crashes could be a first-order concern for them. Based on Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data, Crancer and Crancer (2010) report that blood tests established that one or both drivers had used marijuana near the time of the accident in 5.5 percent of passenger-vehicle fatal crashes (2008 in California). Causality is complicated in multicar crashes, but, even just considering single-vehicle fatal crashes, Crancer and Crancer found that 126 fatalities in crashes with marijuana involved drivers, 75 percent of whom had alcohol levels below 0.08.
There is no empirical evidence concerning an elasticity of fatal accident rates with respect to marijuana price, prevalence, or quantity consumed, and, as we have underscored repeatedly, there is enormous uncertainty concerning how legalization might affect those outcomes.
However, 50- or 100-percent increases in use cannot be ruled out; nor can the possibility that marijuana-involved traffic crashes would increase proportionally with use. So it would be hard to dismiss out of hand worries that marijuana legalization could increase traffic fatalities by at least 60 per year (126 × 50% = 63)—especially since this represents increases in fatalities
associated only with single-vehicle crashes and ignores the role marijuana might play in multivehicle fatalities. See Pacula (2010a) for a more detailed analysis. There is no satisfactory way to compare the importance of some number of traffic deaths to dollar-denominated outcomes, such as tax
revenues, but, when economists are forced to come up with such a number, they often use figures on the order of $4 million to $9 million per death (Viscusi and Aldy, 2003). Whereas we are reasonably confident that additional costs of marijuana treatment and of ED mentions and hospitalizations related directly to use per se are not first-order concerns, we cannot rule out that possibility with respect to legalization’s effects on drugged driving.
Use of Other Substances
Legalization will reduce marijuana prices and increase marijuana use. Either effect could affect the use of other substances. We take them up in reverse order. Increased marijuana use could lead to greater use of other substances in various ways. For example, it is possible that becoming dependent on marijuana affects neural pathways in a way that increases vulnerability to abusing other substances. However, almost all the literature and
controversy concerns a possible causal effect of use short of dependence.
The use of marijuana typically precedes the use of such substances as cocaine and heroin, and people who use marijuana earlier and more heavily are more likely to go on to more and heavier use of these substances (Kandel, 2002). These facts have given rise to the so-called gateway
hypothesis—the hypothesis being that the pattern is not merely coincidence but instead reflects causal linkages, so that anything that increases or reduces use of marijuana might thereby cause an increase or reduction in use of these other substances.
Few topics in the drug-policy literature have stirred greater passions than the gateway hypothesis. While everyone agrees about the descriptive facts (e.g., cocaine use is usually preceded by marijuana use), there are sharp differences about whether the patterns reflect a causal relationship and, if so, what the causal mechanism is. Skeptics are fond of pointing out that
cocaine use is also usually preceded by drinking milk (i.e., most cocaine users tried milk before they first experimented with cocaine, but no one believes that drinking milk puts one at risk for greater cocaine use).
The gateway effect, if it exists, has at least two potential and quite different sources (MacCoun, 1998). One interpretation is that it is an effect of the drug use itself (e.g., trying marijuana increases the taste for other drugs or leads users to believe that other substances are more pleasurable or less risky than previously supposed). A second interpretation stresses peer groups
and social interactions. Acquiring and using marijuana regularly may lead to differentially associating with peers who have attitudes and behaviors that are prodrug generally, not only with respect to marijuana. One version of this is the possibility that those peers will include people who sell other drugs, reducing the difficulty of locating potential supplies. If the latter
is the explanation, then legalization might reduce the likelihood of moving on to harder drugs compared to the current situation.
Many studies have examined the gateway effect, and Room et al. (2010, p. 35) provide a concise appraisal of the international, multidisciplinary evidence:
Cannabis use is more strongly associated with other illicit drug use than alcohol or tobacco use, and the earliest and most frequent cannabis users are the most likely to use other illicit drugs. Animal studies provide some biological plausibility for a causal relationship between cannabis and other types of illicit drug use. Well-controlled longitudinal studies suggest that selective recruitment to cannabis use does not wholly explain the association between cannabis use and the use of other illicit drugs. This is supported by discordant twin studies [that] suggest that shared genes and environment do not wholly explain the association. Nonetheless, it has been difficult to exclude the hypothesis that the pattern of use reflects the common characteristics of those who use cannabis and other drugs. We say nothing more about gateway effects because there simply is no consensus about it.
Farrelly et al. (2001) use a proxy for marijuana use, and their results suggest that, when marijuana use goes up, so does tobacco use.
Cocaine. A number of studies suggest that marijuana and cocaine are economic complements, but many of these studies use the problematic decriminalization variable as a proxy for marijuana price (Thies and Register, 1993; Grossman and Chaloupka, 1998; Saffer and Chaloupka,
1999). Williams and colleagues (2006) use actual marijuana prices in their analysis of cocaine use among college students in the United States. For college students in the 1990s, they estimate the cross-price participation elasticity for cocaine to be between -0.44 and -0.49.
This means that a 10-percent decrease in the price of marijuana would increase the prevalence of cocaine use by 4.4 to 4.9 percent.
Excerpts below from the Rand Testimony to the Subcommittee on Criminal Justice, Drug Policy and Human Resources of the House Committee on Government Reform – July 13th l999 (Peter Reuter and Robert J. MacCoun
Several lines of evidence on the deterrent effects of marijuana laws and on decriminalization experiences in the United States. the Netherlands and Australia –suggest that eliminating (or significantly reducing) criminal penalties for first-time possession of small quantities of marijuana has either no effect or a very small effect on the prevalence of marijuana use.
….. Decriminalisation was not associated with any detectable changes in adolescent attitudes toward marijuana. [now, in 2010 we can already see that
So-called medical marijuana and Prop.19 in CA have changed adolescent attitudes
….The initial decriminalization (in the Netherlands) phase had no detectable impact on levels of cannabis use, consistent with evidence from the US and Australia. Survey data showed literally no increase in youth or adult use from 1976 to about l984, and Dutch rates were well below those in the US. …..But between l980 and l988 (the commercialization regime mid l980s to l995) the number of coffee shops selling cannabis in Amsterdam increased tenfold,…. .….and began to promote the drug more openly.
As commercial access and promotion increased, the Netherlands saw rapid growth in the number of cannabis users, an increase not mirrored in other nations. Whereas 15% of l8-20 year olds reported having used marijuana in l984, the figure more than doubled to 33% in 1992. Since l992 the Dutch figure has continued to rise but that growth is paralleled in the US and most other rich Western nations…..
…..Legalization would eliminate the harms caused by prohibition, but it would not eliminate the harms caused by drug use……..we believe that legalization would significantly increase the number of drug users and the quantity of drugs consumed. ……
……If legalization produced a significantly large increase in total use, total drug harm would go up, even if each incident of use became somewhat safer. Because Total Drug Harm = Average Harm Per Use x Total Use, total harm can rise even if average harm goes down………….Thus legalization is a very risky strategy for reducing drug-related harm.